We psephological prudists do not normally approve of hypothetical questions in opinion polls, and I thought that questions about referendums had exhausted their limited value some time ago.
But the YouGov poll in today’s Sun manages to ask a hypothetical question about a referendum on this country’s EU membership that is interesting and that tells us something new.
Imagine the British government under David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with Europe and said that Britain’s interests were now protected, and David Cameron recommended that Britain remain a member of the European Union on the new terms. How would you then vote in a referendum on the issue?
42% said they “would vote for Britain to remain in the European Union on the new terms”;
34% said they “would vote for Britain to leave the European Union”.
19% said they don’t know and 5% said they would not vote. That would translate into a 55-45% vote to stay in the EU.
It was also interesting that there seems to be considerable support for Cameron’s “wait and see” policy of “strategic patience”:
Thinking about the current situation in Europe, which of the following best reflects your view?
If we are to have a renegotiation or referendum on Europe it be decided as soon as possible, the economic crisis in the Eurozone means we need to resolve our relationship with Europe as soon as we can: 36%
With the rest of Europe in a debt crisis it would be better to wait and see what happens and what the rest of the European Union looks like after the crisis has passed before deciding what is best for Britain: 39%
8% responded “Neither”: presumably they want to get out regardless, or want to stay in regardless.
And if you believe in that stuff about the wisdom of crowds, YouGov also asked:
Regardless of whether or not you would like Britain to remain a member of the European Union, do you think Britain will still be a member of the European Union in 10 years time?
63% said yes and 22% said no.
Eagle Eye 